SagarmathaIQ - Data Analytics & Modeling

Budget · PDF Forensics · Fiscal Law · June 2026

Finance Bill 2083: What the PDFs Show

The Finance Minister told parliament "not even a full stop changed" - eleven days after his own office issued a five-point erratum. We obtained both Finance Bill PDFs (the parliamentary tabled version and the Ministry of Finance website version), extracted the metadata, and read every disputed provision directly against the budget speech.

Published · June 2026

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Parliamentary Version

470 pp

MoF Website Version

450 pp

Provisions Checked

7

Omitted From Bill

2

Added Post-Tabling

1

Budget · Explainer · May 2026

Reading Nepal's NPR 2.1 Trillion Budget

Finance Minister Dr. Swarnim Wagle tabled the FY 2083/84 budget on 29 May 2026. Where the NPR 2.1 trillion comes from, where it goes, what is genuinely new (sovereign AI compute center, NEA restructuring, three new bond instruments), and what changed in your wallet. No spin - just the numbers.

Published · 29 May 2026

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Total Budget

NPR 2,124B

Growth vs Prior Year

+25.2%

Revenue Target

NPR 1,405B

Internal Borrowing

NPR 410B

Capital Allocation

NPR 431B

Budget · Infrastructure · Energy · May 2026

Nepal's data center bet

The Balen Shah government is positioning Nepal as a data center and AI compute hub, powered by clean hydropower. The strategic case is stronger than critics admit. The dry-season electricity problem and Kathmandu's water crisis are real - and neither has a quick fix.

Published · 29 May 2026

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Hydro Share of Grid

99.8%

Dry-Season Capacity Drop

40–60%

1 Hyperscale DC Water / Day

19M L

Per Capita Electricity

479 kWh

South Asia Rank

2nd lowest

ECONOMY · MANIFESTO MATH

RSP promised 7% growth. The manifesto's GDP target needs 17%.

Tests three economic targets in the RSP manifesto against compound growth arithmetic. The 7% growth promise and the $100 billion GDP target describe two different five-year futures. Only one can be true.

Published · May 2026

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Required Growth

16.9%

RSP Promise

7.0%

Target GDP

$100B

What 7% Delivers

$64.3B

Gap

$35.7B

Opinion · Technology & Society · Nepali

डिजिटल युगको विरोधाभास

Is technology making us smarter or dumber? An opinion piece in Nepali on the Reverse Flynn Effect, AI-driven cognitive offloading, and what the global research means for Nepal's deepening education crisis.

Published · May 2026

लेख पढ्नुहोस्

SEE Non-Graded (2024)

52.14%

Attention Span 2004 → 2024

150s → 47s

Nepali Kids w/o Basic Literacy

56%

Reverse Flynn Effect Since

~1975

Brain Regions Less Active w/ AI

32 / 32

Impact Analysis · Labour & Economy

The Gulf is Burning. Nepal is Watching.

The 2026 Iran war put 1.73 million Nepali workers in active conflict zones overnight. We map the six impact channels, quantify the remittance exposure, and lay out what the Balen Shah government must do - short-term and long-term.

Published · April 2026

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Nepalis in Gulf

1.73M

Remittances % of GDP

28.6%

Monthly Inflow

Rs 193B

Held above poverty

2.6M people

Impact Channels

6 mapped

Impact Analysis · Education Policy

Nepal's Five-Day School Week

Nepal's April 2026 fuel-crisis directive moves schools from a 6-day to a 5-day week - aligning the country with global norms. We quantify the 3-hour weekly transition gap, benchmark Nepal against India and the US, and map what schools can realistically do about it.

Published · April 2026

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Weekly change

−9.1%

Annual gap

~110 hrs

Equiv. school days

~18–20

Global alignment

5-day week

Session delay

13 days

Fiscal Analysis · Nepal Federalism

Nepal's Pradesh Structure: White Elephant or Misdiagnosed Problem?

People keep saying the seven Pradesh governments cost too much. We went to the actual audited accounts - the Financial Comptroller General Office's Consolidated Financial Statement - to check. The numbers tell a different story than the headlines.

Published · March 2026

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Province Share of Spending

10.7%

Provinces as % of GDP

3.8%

Federal Deficit (FY 2022/23)

Rs 181B

Federal Recurrent Share

69.8%

CapEx Baseline Deviation

±3%

Election Forecasting · Nepal

Nepal 2082 Parliamentary Election

We modeled all 165 FPTP constituencies and the 110-seat PR allocation before the 2082 election. Built on a zero-sum Dirichlet model with 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, calibrated against 2079 results. The election wrapped on Falgun 21, 2082 and the post-mortem is now published.

Completed · Post-mortem published

Read post-mortem All 165 results

FPTP Accuracy

82 / 165

KTM Valley

14 / 15

RSP Final Seats

182 / 275

Constituencies Modeled

165

Numbers,
not narratives.

Published Forecasts