🎯 BALEN SHAH (Rastriya Swatantra Party): 59.9% WIN PROBABILITY

KP SHARMA OLI (CPN-UML): 40.1% chance
Expected: Balen Shah 37.1% vs KP Sharma Oli 35.5% (1.5-point margin)
COMPETITIVE RACE

📊 Key Forecast Insights

Balen Shah favored at 59.9%, but KP Sharma Oli has a 40.1% real chance
Expected 1.5-point margin: consolidation scenarios matter
Confidence: LOW based on 10,000 simulations
95% CI: Balen Shah 30.7%–43.4%, KP Sharma Oli 27.6%–44.4%

Win Probability

Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

📊 Balanced Model • Data-Driven
🔔 BALEN SHAH
59.9%
Rastriya Swatantra Party
5,989 of 10,000 wins: Slight Edge
☀️ KP SHARMA OLI
40.1%
CPN-UML
4,011 of 10,000 wins: Real Chance

🎯 Expected Result

🔔 Balen Shah (Rastriya Swatantra Party) ★ LIKELY WINNER 37.1%
42,367 votes
95% CI: 30.7% – 43.4%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli (CPN-UML) 35.5%
40,641 votes
95% CI: 27.6% – 44.4%
🌳 Mandara Chimariya Paudel (Nepali Congress) 8.9%
10,223 votes
95% CI: 5.2% – 13.9%
⭐ Ranjit Tamang (NCP) 6.4%
7,288 votes
95% CI: 3.0% – 12.5%
🏔️ Laxmi Prasad Sangroula (RPP) 6.3%
7,168 votes
95% CI: 2.9% – 12.2%
Samir Tamang (SSP) 5.8%
6,649 votes
95% CI: 3.1% – 10.2%
Expected Margin: +1.5 percentage points
Balen Shah leads by 1,727 votes | Total turnout: ~114,337 votes

Key Statistics

59.9%
Balen Shah Win
40.1%
KP Sharma Oli Win
1.5
Point Margin
1.7K
Vote Margin
10,000
Simulations
LOW
Confidence
Model: core_contestable
Generated: February 10, 2026 20:47
Method: Monte Carlo • Core + Contestable decomposition
Consolidation: Enabled (6 scenarios)

Race Characterization

Competitive Race:
1.5-point margin (1,727 votes)
Projected Winner: Balen Shah (Rastriya Swatantra Party)
Win Probability: 59.9%
Confidence: LOW
Credible Intervals (95%):
🔔 Balen Shah: 30.7% – 43.4%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli: 27.6% – 44.4%
Ranges reflect uncertainty in contestable voter allocation

Consolidation Scenarios

RPP → UML 20%

Competitive scenario

🔔 Balen Shah 36.7%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 36.1%
Balen Shah wins 1,113/2,020 (55%), COMPETITIVE
NCP → UML 20%

Competitive scenario

🔔 Balen Shah 36.7%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 36.1%
Balen Shah wins 1,106/2,004 (55%), COMPETITIVE
RPP+NCP → UML 20%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 39.9%
🔔 Balen Shah 36.9%
KP Sharma Oli wins 1,373/1,997 (69%)
All Separate 20%

Baseline: no party drops out

🔔 Balen Shah 36.7%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 32.1%
Balen Shah wins 1,604/1,975 (81%)
NC → RSP 10%
🔔 Balen Shah 40.0%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 31.9%
Balen Shah wins 934/1,003 (93%)
Nc To Uml 10%
🔔 Balen Shah 36.6%
☀️ KP Sharma Oli 35.1%
Balen Shah wins 608/1,001 (61%)

FORECAST SUMMARY

Balen Shah is favored (59.9%) but this is a competitive race. Expected outcome: Balen Shah 37.1%, KP Sharma Oli 35.5% (1.5-point margin).

Data-Driven • 10,000 Simulations • LOW Confidence